A Tropical Storm… In November !?!?


 

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]

 

 

 

Hurricane Season Is Not Quite Over Yet_After All
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ida which has sustained winds of 70 mph and is weakening. Ida is currently located about 270 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Fl. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest at 17 mph and may make landfall on the central Gulf coast sometime before sunrise tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Following landfall, Ida will make a turn toward the east and move along/near the southern Georgia/northern Florida border.  

Rainfall totals from Ida are forecast to be sufficient to produce some flooding in northern and central Georgia. The current two-day rainfall totals – which will mostly fall between 7:00 am Tuesday and 1:00 am Wednesday – range from four to six inches with isolated higher totals. The rainfall totals expected from Ida have prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue a Flash Flood Watch for northern and central Georgia that is valid from late tonight through early Wednesday. The watch area is generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Warrenton. The highest rainfall totals are anticipated from Carrollton to metro Atlanta to Gainesville. Lesser amounts (1” – 2”) are forecast for southern portions of the state.

The rainfall from Ida will cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise Tuesday producing minor flooding. Minor flooding along main-stem rivers is possible. Areas most likely to experience flooding include the mountainous areas of the north and metro Atlanta. No major or widespread significant flooding is anticipated at this time, however all are urged to maintain a close watch on flood prone areas and monitor the system’s progress via their local NWS office.

Winds
Tropical Storm Ida will be making landfall along the Gulf coast tomorrow morning and moving eastward toward southwest and southern Georgia on Tuesday and through the state on Wednesday. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) the highest probabilities for tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) exist in southwest Georgia where probabilities range from 50 to 60 percent. Accordingly, the NWS has issued a Tropical Storm Wind Watch for portion of southwest Georgia. At this time, no major long-term sustained wind event is anticipated in Georgia; however, low-end tropical storm force winds will be possible on Tuesday which may produce sporadic power outages and potentially downed trees.

Tornadoes
As Tropical Storm Ida moves eastward into southern Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday, a minor chance for some isolated / weak / brief tornadoes exists. The most likely location for potential tornadoes will be far southern Georgia from the Georgia-Alabama border to the Georgia coast. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has NOT issued a slight or higher risk for severe thunderstorms.

Summary
Heavy rain will affect most of central and north Georgia from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Local emergency management officials should monitor flood prone areas for problems, although widespread major flooding is unlikely. The State Operations Center will be partially activated as of 5:00 am Tuesday and all Emergency Support Functions are on alert if needed. Various state agencies are also monitoring any potential fuel supply issues as well. Currently, no major fuel disruptions are expected.

(Source: Georgia Emergency Management Agency (G.E.M.A))

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